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F00LY

Guess The Final Registration Count!

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Years ago, someone did a thread with a daily update of how many people registered to the con the months leading up to it.

I thought it would be fun to, in spirit of a thread I miss, see if we can guess anywhere near the final count.

For historic context, Otakon peaked in 2013 during the 20th year anniversary.
 

  • 2013 - 34,211 ( 20th Anniversary )
  • 2014 - 33, 929
  • 2015 - 26,877
  • 2016 - 29,133 ( Last year of Baltimore )

Current registration count : 15,454 with 15 days remaining (my poor cosplay...)

I think historically in the last week they gain around 500-1,000 a day, no?

I think we'll top off somewhere around 24,000.  It'll be weird having so much more space and freedom in the Dealer's Room, Artist Alley and Linecon areas with so many less people.

Also I think registration feeling lower than normal isn't a surprise.  DC is new, and is intimidating, and people are likely waiting to hear status report of "How's the new Otakon" before rushing in.  I imagine a lot of people may view this year as Otakon's year to "experiment" with the WEWCC before being a bit more optimized for the 25th Anniverary in 2018.

 

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I'm going for that cool 22,000... I'm pretty weirded out by seeing low numbers but hey, dat free space B)

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I'll say no more than 27k, but I think it's going to be more in the 25-26k range.

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Yeah I wanna say 20-25k max. Maybe we'll be surprised by at con registrations.


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And you didn't even offer a prize for who gets closest without going over. :-(

If it makes you feel any better I do post something about the reg rate on the staff side of the BBS, and because I also have all the historical data going back to the first online reg I won't post my guess from over there here.  But you are right that at-con reg is the biggest unknown right now since it is the first year in a new location.

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@MattTheMinion Haha, I figured the grand fame and notoriety provided by our group would be prize enough!

Ohhh, that's actually really cool!  Yeah, I hope the turn-out is big in person! I always love bigger turnouts. It feels more exciting.

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I'm estimating between 27,000-32,000.

I do agree that the new location may scare some people away (not to mention Bronycon happening the same weekend as Otakon, which could take away some of the MLP fans). However, I also think the additional space of the WEWCC and the Anisong concerts will also attract some people, allowing for a possibility of Otakon getting a few more people this year.

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I'd be surprised if we surpassed 20,000 at this rate.

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Today's registration count is : 15,740 

This is an increase of 286.

Will continue monitoring, but hoping to see these start to go much higher sooner with the schedule etc posted and being spread around.  

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I wanna say 19550.

It's the first year at a new place, with, I think, more expensive hotel rooms around if you didn't get one through Otakon's partnership thingie with the local hotels. Wouldn't be shocked if people are waiting for next year to see how things go this year before committing their money. There will definitely be more people next year provided nothing bad happens this year, I have no doubt.

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Today's registration count is : 15,919

This is an increase of 179.

As its 2-weeks from convention weekend, I'm hoping to see some activity from last minute plans being formulated over the weekend!

Also, I just saw more pics of the Mariott and its pretty hype.

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I'm gonna guess 21,000. I'm hoping the lower reg numbers won't affect programming too much next year - I think that's when numbers will start to ramp up again.

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Today's registration count is : 16,268

This is an increase of 153.

 

Sorry this doesn't happen at a standardized time - I do it when I first wind up on the forums for the day!

 

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21,367

The Price of Parking and Hotels will keep away alot of people, including having to pay extra for the concerts.  I think word will get out that the new convention center is better and we will gradually get more people coming each year afterwords.

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On 7/29/2017 at 1:29 PM, F00LY said:

 

Also, I just saw more pics of the Mariott and its pretty hype.

The Marriott is gorgeous. I think everyone will be really suprised at the amount of light in the hotel and the convention center. It will seem much more light and airy in person. It should make for great natural light cosplay photos!

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8 hours ago, j-po said:

The Marriott is gorgeous. I think everyone will be really suprised at the amount of light in the hotel and the convention center. It will seem much more light and airy in person. It should make for great natural light cosplay photos!

I can't wait to stay at the Marriott; it's a little pricey but I figured I would want to start the first year at the new con center right. The lobby is gorgeous from the photos I've seen.

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Today's registration count is : 16,55516,268

This is an increase of 287.

I think it usually climbs steadily as we get closer. 287 from Monday into Tuesday seems good! 

I really can't wait for all the awesome con photos that are going to come from the new Hotel / Convention Center.  Katsucon really made me wish for a better setup and I think this might be it!

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1 hour ago, F00LY said:

Today's registration count is : 16,55516,268

I think we're over capacity for DC already.

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2 hours ago, Krabstarr said:

I think we're over capacity for DC already.

Otakons registration count has ascended past proper comma usage, proper number systems.

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Today's registration count is : 16,955

This is an increase of 300.

Still on the rise! Tomorrow should see 17,000.  I imagine this weekend will be large spikes too, and then tailoring off until all the other last minuters do at-door registration. Just a guess, though!

Does anyone know what the last 4-5 years worth of "at-door" registration numbers were?

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1 hour ago, F00LY said:

Does anyone know what the last 4-5 years worth of "at-door" registration numbers were?

I do :P

If course the tricky part is that the at-con folks were usually people who drove in, and since we are in a new area those people are likely completely different.

 

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I think 22k-23k will be close. If I had to guess a specific number? 22,964

Also, as of 11:24 PM EST we are at 17,291. I'm excited to see how much it climbs before next Thursday!

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On 8/2/2017 at 9:29 PM, MattTheMinion said:

I do :P

If course the tricky part is that the at-con folks were usually people who drove in, and since we are in a new area those people are likely completely different.

 

Just for curiousity are you able to share? :P

I missed yesterday but 17,433
 

Today's registration count is : 17,433

This is an increase of 478 since Wed.

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Today's registration count is : 17,738

This is an increase of 305 since yesterday!

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On 8/4/2017 at 1:12 PM, F00LY said:

Just for curiousity are you able to share? :P

The average for the past 3 years is around 3,250. But the average for the prior 3 years is 7,450. What we were basically seeing that as time went on more people shifted to online registration over at-door. Since we are in a new location this year, the trend could continue. But the other side of that is that we have a new group of people who are "local" so the actual number could go either way.

1 hour ago, Kirarakim said:

The person closest without going over gets to take all the guests home with them :P

If you want to pay for their plane tickets and other travel fees, I will gladly send them to your place first. B)

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Today's registration count is : 18,132

This is an increase of 394 since yesterday!

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Today's is early cause lolmycosplayisntanywhereneardone

Today's registration count is : 18,347

This is an increase of 215 since yesterday!

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On 7/27/2017 at 10:03 AM, F00LY said:

Years ago, someone did a thread with a daily update of how many people registered to the con the months leading up to it.

I was doing it for a while but stopped once they stopped displaying the daily numbers. To be honest, it was pretty mundane work.

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On 7/31/2017 at 10:39 PM, The Tsunami said:

Yeah, think I came in real high on that one. We'll find out next week.

You were actually only under by less than 110 registrants

Pretty sure you won this one 

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