Was there any spike of Covid after Otakon?

[Daniel Perales 95]

Hi All!

      I'm just asking this particular question because people back home are asking me. People I know are still afraid of going back to cons because of it. I personally had myself tested 2 days after the con (tested negative), before I went back to work. I did the same thing when I attended New York Comic Con and Anime-NYC last year.

Same results.

       I guess I've been pretty lucky all this time. I've been vaccinated and I always wear my mask when I take public transportation (including on the Amtrak train going to Washington and back).

[windseeker 80]

I didn't get it.

[Nate A.M. 1]

Positive tests in DC have been down week-to-week and Otakon doesn't seem to have meaningfully affected things. The same goes for Alexandria and Fairfax. Anecdotally, I don't know anyone who got sick either. Between those two facts, I figure Otakon must've been about as safe as a 43k attendee event can be (from a pandemic perspective). I bet we'd all get sick pretty fast if we went every week, but for a yearly event, I've filed it in my list of pandemic concerns I no longer have to think hard about.

-at least, assuming things get better and not worse.

Interestingly, DC used to track outbreaks (defined extremely broadly as two cases confirmed by contact tracing to have happened at a gathering for any reason besides cohabitation), but a) they stopped posting the data in April and b) they didn't give a breakdown of size, and c) they never gave any ino more specific than the number of outbreaks in a type of setting per week. For instance, the week of Otakon 2021 lists one outbreak at an "event venue," but it's not clear if this is actually Otakon or how many they tracked from the event. It couldn't've been that bad since the needle didn't appreciably move then either, but I still wish they provided a little more resolution with their data than "none at all."

I wonder if Otakon themselves has more resolution. Seems like something that might be required for liability reasons.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Nate A.M.

[Daniel Perales 95]

48 minutes ago, Nate A.M. said:

For instance, the week of Otakon 2021 lists one outbreak at an "event venue," but it's not clear if this is actually Otakon or how many they tracked from the event. It couldn't've been that bad since the needle didn't appreciably move then either, but I still wish they provided a little more resolution with their data than "none at all."

 

Here in New York City, they made a huge deal about Anime-NYC last year. A person from Minnesota was tested positive when he got home from the con. My supervisor from work broke the news to me and I had myself tested that very night.

Came clean. 

Anyway, it turned out that it was only him and half of the other people that he was hanging out with were the only ones that were affected.

 

[Revan 38]

I was curious about this myself, but wasn't sure about broaching the subject. I've read that Gencon, with ~50K attendees and a similar masking / vaccine policy, had reports of people getting Covid at the con. One speculation for this is because Indiana's vaccine rate was in the 50s while DC is up around 80%, and people actually caught it outside the con while attending. I can't say whether that's true, but it does sound plausible.

I haven't had any symptoms, and I tested negative twice a week after the con. I stayed masked whenever I was outside my hotel room - Septa, 30th Street Station, Amtrak, Metro, Smithsonian, National Gallery, Marquis lobby, WEWCC - with a few exceptions when outside and sufficiently distant from anyone else.

[Krabstarr 54]

I've seen very few people self report on Twitter that they had a positive Covid test after Otakon, though at least 2 people report that they got notice, I'm guessing via a contact tracing app, that they were exposed to Covid. There were far more people reporting negative tests. One unfortunate report was that Otakon guest Beau Billingslea had a positive Covid test on August 5th, so he encouraged everyone who had contact with him to get tested. 
https://twitter.com/BeauBillingslea/status/1555404822110617600?s=20&t=SCn3j9irJ_I5St-ScO9mGA

Edited August 18, 2022 by Krabstarr

[Daniel Perales 95]

I heard (2nd or 3rd hand information), that there were at least 2 vendors in the Dealer's Room caught Covid. Not sure if it was during or right after Otakon. Since the name of those vendors were not disclosed, I will just take it as hearsay.

 

[windseeker 80]

2 hours ago, Daniel Perales said:

I heard (2nd or 3rd hand information), that there were at least 2 vendors in the Dealer's Room caught Covid. Not sure if it was during or right after Otakon. Since the name of those vendors were not disclosed, I will just take it as hearsay.

 

Saw quite a few maskless vendors the times I was in the DR.

[Daniel Perales 95]

34 minutes ago, windseeker said:

Saw quite a few maskless vendors the times I was in the DR.

So did I, but most of the vendors I interacted with did had their's on like I did.

I remember New York Comic Con threw a vendor out last year because they refused to follow the guidelines (wear masks).

 

[Aresef 113]

I was a close contact with somebody but came up negative on multiple rapid tests.

[Robert Brian Cutler 7]

There were a handful of cases, but less than a dozen, which is fairly average for the number of attendees.

[Clutch 64]

For all we know, the people who tested positive were exposed prior to the convention.

I waited a few days and did a rapid test, then did another one on the weekend after before visiting people. Otakon had pretty strict policies in place (COVID bands had to be visible when entering the convention), and the crowd was more likely to be vaccinated.

[kalyoth 5]

With the 7 day incubation time frame before you actually acquire openly the symptoms, becomes difficult to actually label a major gathering as THE source. Where it is an Environmental virus similar to the seasonal flu etc, a whole host of daily activity leading up to arrival can also be the source - especially where the animals inside & out also carry it in the ecosystem. The fear needs to truly be knocked down more. It's something that will not ever go away from the world. You have to adapt and push forward, accepting that it is just another one many ways to get sick, seek treatment & continue living life.

Edited August 20, 2022 by kalyoth

[Nate A.M. 1]

Seven days is near the upper bound of the incubation period for wild type COVID-19. Omicron BA.2 has a mean incubation period closer to 2~3 days, just like all its Omicon subvariant friends. This makes the task a bit easier, but of course you're right and pinning down the specific source of an outbreak requires strong methods and can't just be eyeballed. That said, "did a lot of people catch the coof during the weekend of Otakon" is a much simpler question, and the answer is "no." You don't have to worry about back-tracing an outbreak if there's no outbreak to back-trace.

I sorta agree that a lot of people seem to think things are way worse than they really are – especially about "long Covid" – but I think you're looking at it the wrong way. Both individuals and organizations can look at what the pandemic is doing, evaluate what amount of risk is appropriate, and take appropriate steps to mitigate the risk to that level. Sometimes that means doing more, sometimes that means doing less.

If you're Otakon, this means thinking pretty hard, which is fine because that's what conventions have to do about literally everything safety related. There are liability issues to contend with, and a poorly planned event can actually kill people. For individuals, having to think about the pandemic at all is a cost, but I still find it worthwhile to check Microcovid every once in a while and see where things are. I don't use it assiduously, but I try to keep my risk level at vaguely a 3% chance per year of catching the coof, which again, sometimes means doing more, and sometimes means doing less. Obviously it let me go to Otakon without worrying too much, so it's not that hard.

I also think "COVID-19 is here to stay" is a bit bleak, since while yes, it is in fact here to stay, it isn't going to stay at its current levels and will probably trend downwards over time. I've spent all day on-and-off writing this post – this used to be an effortpost with Actual Math™ – and don't want to get into it, but there are reasons why it probably won't be variant after variant to infinity, and why even the current levels will probably trend down with time. That last part shouldn't be so hard to believe because it's happened before. Hell, the pandemic was over in NoVA during Spring 2021 for about two months.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Nate A.M.

[Daniel Perales 95]

On 8/19/2022 at 6:34 PM, Robert Brian Cutler said:

There were a handful of cases, but less than a dozen, which is fairly average for the number of attendees.

Less than a dozen, out of 40,000. I would consider that's almost insignificant.